Panel Discussion "Signs of Change in Belarus: Taking Stock of Recent Domestic and International Developments"

The German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Deutsch-Belarussische Gesellschaft are organizing a panel discussion that brings together experts and decision-makers from Belarus and Europe to share their perspectives of current political developments.

Recent months have seen an increasing number of signals that the domestic and international situation in Belarus, long seemingly frozen, has garnered new momentum and may be headed for change. Inside the country, the release of political prisoners, additional space for the independent press, changes in the government apparatus and ensuing privatization seem to signal the beginnings of a political and economic opening of the authoritarian state order. Outside of Belarus, the European Union has decided to engage with Minsk more proactively and invited the country to its new Eastern Partnership initiative, and the moratorium on high-level meetings with Belarusian government representatives has effectively ended. Many observers believe that these developments are significant signs of change in Belarus, yet others discard domestic changes as merely cosmetic and European policies as ill-conceived. 

Agenda 

14:00 - 14:15 Welcome and Introduction
Pavol Demes, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Rainer Lindner, Chairman, Deutsch-Belarussische Gesellschaft/ Minsk Forum, Germany 

14:15 - 15:45 The Beginnings of Political Change? Civil Society Perspectives from Belarus 
After years of considerable stability, the domestic situation of Belarus has become more fluid over the last year. The economic viability of the "Belarusian model", a state-owned economy with strong re-distributive functions, is being challenged since Russia decided to stop subsidizing Belarus through cheap oil and gas supplies, and with the global economic crisis taking effect also in Belarus. Social discontent seems to be on the rise, with increasingly frequent protests by different social groups. Civil society, although under strong pressure by state authorities, remains an independent sphere for public discussion, criticism of the state, and regular action in defense of democracy and human rights. President A. Lukashenko has responded to this changing situation with personnel changes within the nomenklatura, privatization of state economic assets, and occasional concessions to the democratic opposition, such as the inclusion of dissenters in several public councils and permission for independent newspapers to be published. This panel discussion will assess these multiple signals and discuss prospects for further political change in Belarus. 

Key Questions:   How can we interpret the political, economic and social developments of the last months in Belarus? Are these changes merely cosmetic, or precursors of a lasting political opening of Belarus? What drives these changes, and which are the main agents of change? What is the role of the political opposition, civil society and independent media in the country, and how can they effectively work towards political liberalization?

Speakers: Andrey Dynko, Editor-in-Chief, Nasha Niva
Kataryna Glod, Deputy Director, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies
Iryna Vidanava, Journalist, CDMag
Moderator: Pavol Demes, German Marshall Fund of the United States

16:15 - 18:00 Engaging with the Belarusian Government? International Perspectives 

At its recent summit in Prague, the European Union launched a new Eastern Partnership. The inclusion in this program of Belarus marks a major departure of the long-standing EU policy of isolation, and a shift towards engagement with Belarus. Many in the EU justified this policy change with recent signals of political liberalization sent by Minsk, such as the release of political prisoners or a somewhat more open atmosphere during the September 2008 parliamentary elections. Others, however, have remained skeptical, considering the steps taken by the Belarusian government as insufficient and pointing to its history of human rights abuses. This latter position is shared by the US government that remains reluctant to engage with Belarusian government. As a result, the international community in the West is considerably split between those pursuing a more pragmatic course, and those taking a stronger moral position. These divisions, however, put the West at a considerable disadvantage in supporting a political liberalization and possibly democratization of Belarus from the outside. 

Key Questions: How can we assess hitherto EU policy towards Belarus? Can a changed policy, such as proposed under the Eastern Partnership contribute to advancing democracy and European integration of Belarus? Are the United States likely to follow EU policies of engagement under the Obama administration? How will closer relationships with Europe affect Belarusian ties with Russia? 

Speakers: David Marples, Professor of History, Department of History & Classics, University of Alberta, Canada
Mariusz Maszkiewicz, Head of Eastern Policy Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Poland
Hans-Georg Wieck, Chairman, Human Rights in Belarus, former Head of the OSCE Office in Minsk
David Kramer, The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Moderator: Rainer Lindner, Chairman, Deutsch-Belarussische Gesellschaft/ Minsk Forum, Germany

The event will be held at the Centre Monbijou, Oranienburger Strasse 13/14, 10178 Berlin

10. Juni 2009 in Veranstaltungen, Veranstaltungen der dbg, Östliche Partnerschaft

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